Sustainable Spanish Economy?
December 1st, 2009
What with all the political manoeuvring this week, you would think there is a general election looming in Spain. In fact, the current Prime Minister called a general election as recently as March 2008 – while he was still in a position to win it.
The fact that Mr Zapatero (Socialist) did indeed win a second term in office had more to do with the lack of support for his opponent, Mr Rajoy (Conservative), than any overwhelming confidence in the Socialists.
With Spain still one of a few European countries still languishing in recession, I doubt Mr Zapatero will be calling an election any time soon. His current term of office will expire in March 2012 – long enough, hopefully, for the governments’ proposed economic policies to have had a positive effect.
In Spanish Strategy for Sustainable Economic Growth we read about some of those plans. The ‘Sustainable’ in the title is a play on words – referring both to the creation of ‘green’ employment and a realisation that relying on a property boom to fuel the Spanish economy wasn’t such a good idea.
Mr Rajoy, representing the Conservative opposition, slammed the proposals as hot air and has been on a warpath against the governments’ lack of strategy to pull the country out of recession. In polls, the Conservatives are now favoured to win the next election – much as is the case in the UK.
During the week, the government also outlined their plan to make Internet access in Spain a basic human right.
I suspect that this has more to do with Zapatero’s desire to create a more mobile, tech-savvy workforce than any real humanitarian agenda – but the announcement did make a few headlines.
I also suspect that this is another way of the current PM dodging an issue he refuses to tackle: making Spanish workers more competitive in Europe. Current legislation heavily favours the employees rights – making it expensive for employers to hire and fire.
I’m not suggesting a return to Victorian workhouses in Spain, however with unemployment nudging 20% in Spain, the current legislation is clearly doing nothing to encourage employers to hire.
As I’ve been saying for a while, I suspect that in 2010 and 2011, much of Spain’s economic recovery will come about thanks to investment from their European neighbours. Here’s how I see it:
- The Spanish domestic economy will remain suppressed for the next couple of years
- This will drive prices down within Spain
- Meanwhile, most other European economies will be growing
- Money will flow into Spain from Europe and other ‘stronger’ economies
We are already starting to see this happening at the top end of the property market in Spain and the UK. Moneyed buyers have been patiently waiting for the right price before making their move. Now that activity is moving down in price toward more mainstream properties.
As Mild Recovery of the Spanish Property Market and
Spanish Property Recovery Already Underway suggest, real property sales values are at, or near, bottom in Spain. All we are waiting for now are buyers from stronger economies to pounce.
As always, there’s never a right time to make a bad Spanish property purchase. Don’t let the forthcoming frenzy encourage you to take legal or procedural shortcuts.
Always haggle hard, always use an independent lawyer and consider taking out a title deed insurance just in case.
Finally, if you sold a property in Spain within the last 12 years, make sure you read Spanish CGT Tax Rebate Stretched Back to 1997. If you paid more CGT than a Spaniard would have done during that time, you can now claim the difference back.
That ‘difference’ could be a significant chunk of money – and you can even claim interest on it too.
Previously, Spain agreed to consider house sales back to 2004 – but that has now been extended to include transactions going back another 7 years.
Martin Dell, Kyero.com
Related Posts
- Spanish Strategy for Sustainable Economic Growth
- Spanish Economy Showing Signs of Recovery
- Spanish Economy Minister: Contraction Slowing
